欧债危机德国房地产反升 'Cement Gold' German Property Market Soars Amid Euro Crisis （www.spiegel.de)

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-real-estate-market-soars-amid-euro-crisis-a-838437.html

'Cement Gold' German Property Market Soars Amid Euro Crisis

By Renuka Rayasam

dapd

German real estate market prices have increased sharply over the last two years as investors look for solid returns and safe havens in the midst of the euro crisis. That has some worried about the formation of a bubble that could collapse if the German economy falters.

At first glance the two story office building tucked away in the town of Nordhausen seems unremarkable. The boxy building north of Erfurt, the capital of the eastern German state of Thuringia, is painted yellow and comes with a parking lot. Though part of the first floor already has a reliable renter, another part suffered fire damage earlier this year. Still, it's in a desirable location.

In a catalog for an auction early this month in central Berlin, the property was listed for €48,000 ($60,355). But by the end of an intense 15-minute bidding war between two remote buyers and a gentleman in the back of the airy atrium, it went for almost double the asking price: €90,000 ($113,166). The top bidder turned out to be an investor from western Germany. "It is an example of what real estate can fetch when it's good," says Carsten Wohlers of Plettner & Brecht, the property brokerage that ran the auction. About 90 percent of the 53 properties listed were sold, a 10 percent improvement over last year, he says. Organizers also noticed that more buyers called in bids rather than coming in person, though Wohlers attributes that as much to the good weather as the ongoing European Football Championship.
The auction is just one example of how, even as housing market recovery in the United States, Spain and other struggling countries muddles along, Germany's real estate market has taken off. After years of stagnating, German prices for both residential and commercial real estate began rising again in 2009. Buoyed by trouble in other euro crisis countries, German property has become a safe haven for both German and international investors looking for a secure place to store their money.
Indeed, German real estate prices rose 3.5 percent between September 2010 and the same month the following year, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Meanwhile, the average price for homes rose 5.5 percent in 2011, according to the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank. And major German cities such as Berlin, Hamburg and Munich have seen between 10 and 13 percent increases in prices for existing and new apartments, offsetting flat and declining prices in rural parts of the country.
Safe Haven
Though these price increases sound impressive, they hardly indicate a dreaded housing bubble. By comparison, during the first quarter of 2005, as prices approached their peak ahead of the US housing crisis, they rose 12.5 percent over the previous year, with costs for homes in places like California, Nevada and Florida going up some 20 percent a year. Still, the price increases in Germany have the Bundesbank worried enough that it said recently it was monitoring the situation to keep it from getting out of hand.
But the real estate situation in Germany "is not comparable with the US and Spain," says Steffen Sebastian, chair of real estate finance at the University of Regensburg, in the southern German state of Bavaria. Today's real estate price increases are also nothing like Germany's real estate bubble in the mid-1990's, when Helmut Kohl's government provided tax breaks to support post-reunification investment in the former East German property market. Those tax benefits have since been halved.
Sebastian says that German real estate heated up about a year and a half ago, but that the difference between what happened in other countries hit by a housing crisis is that individuals, and not investment banks, are putting their own money into real estate. And they aren't just Germans, but people from across the Continent. "Much of the demand is from speculation across Europe," says Sebastian.
Sebastian also attributes the price increase to low interest rates, fears of inflation within Germany, general concern over the collapse of the euro and relatively few safe investment alternatives. German bond prices, for example, have become so low that investors are practically paying the German government to take their money. In contrast to the stock market and government bonds, German real estate appears to many investors as a safe bet that can earn rewards. Unlike opening a foreign bank account, buying real estate also comes with few regulations and restrictions.
"Italians don't care where they put their money as long as it is in German real estate," says Ruth Stirati, a real estate consultant who works primarily with Italians looking to buy apartments in Berlin. Stirati says that many of her clients are normal Italians who have a little bit of savings that they are too scared to put in Italian banks for fear the euro will collapse.
Sticker Shock
Even though Berlin lacks the kind of industry or job market that support other parts of the country, as Germany's political and (arguably) cultural capital, it has become a particularly attractive destination for international buyers. Many hundreds of individual Berlin apartments were sold in January 2012. More than half of those purchases were made by Italians, Russians, French, and other international buyers, according to a market report by German real estate market firm Engel & Völkers.
"Before there was steady growth in demand, and now it's become a flood," Stirati says of Berlin real estate. Before, Berlin was an insider tip, she says, but in the last two years the city has become the new trend for Italian investors because it's frequently profiled in the media. "Since the crisis there are so many investors who have come to Berlin that the prices are like waves," she says. "One month they are really high and the next month they go down."
Increases in Berlin real estate values have led to sticker shock for buyers and brokers accustomed to the years of low prices. "It's too expensive," says Rudolf Rude, a German engineer who dabbles in real estate investment. At the Plettner & Brecht auction in early June, Rude bought a 95-square-meter (1,020-square-foot) store-front in Berlin's trendy Prenzlauer Berg district for €178,000, about 40 percent above the listed price.
Rude attributes the price increases to Berlin's recent development, which puts it on par with Paris and Moscow, leading to more attention internationally. He says that even though he thinks he paid too much for the property, other investments are too risky and the stock market is too uncertain. "I like to put my money in the ground, in the earth, as cement gold," says Rude. He plans to open a high-end cheese shop in the space.
In the financial capital Frankfurt, by comparison, demand has mostly been from German investors who have money to spare, says Peter Talkenberger, a broker at AllGrund, a real estate consulting firm. In the city center there are few apartments available these days, he says. If an apartment does crop up, it's gone within a week. Still, he adds, "the market is not nearly as wild as Berlin. Berlin is on another level with so much international demand."
On The Brink Of A Bubble?
Wohlers, Rude, Stirati and others on the front lines of German's real estate market believe it will only continue to grow. But whether their forecasts will come true rests largely on the fate of the German economy. Regardless of a shrinking population, a strong job market and solid economic growth has kept demand for homes strong. More people are also moving into cities and looking for new homes.
The international rating agency Standard & Poor's predicts that German home prices will rise for another two or three years, even as the euro crisis engulfs neighboring countries. The agency points to lower unemployment, sustained low interest rates and the already low price to income ratios as reasons for its optimism.

But some experts have warned recently that as the euro crisis deepens, the Germany economy may not be immune for long. It would only take a spike in unemployment and interest rates to stall the country's brisk real estate market. "You can count on more turbulence in the German real estate market," says the University of Regensburg's real estate finance chair Sebastian. "We are living in uncertain times and what we are experiencing happens once a century. We have seen so much that did not seem possible five years ago."
As a note of caution for would-be investors he adds: "It's not necessarily a bubble, but under no circumstance would I still put all of my savings into real estate."

(德国房地产市场出现投资热潮) 通胀：德国人的梦魇 (

http://www.chinataiwan.org/plzhx/gjshd/201209/t20120924_3119567.htm 

时间:2012-09-24 12:56　　　来源：经济参考报

　　仿佛是一夜间，通货膨胀突然又成为德国人热议的话题。
　　引出这个话题从表面上看当然是德国的通胀率。德国统计局的数据显示，今年8月德国年通胀率上涨到2.1%，而6、7月份德国的通胀率还只有1 .7%。统计局的解释是，今年8月能源价格上涨迅猛，达到7.6%，其中燃油价格上涨了10.3%，明显高于去年同期水平。
　　这个数字其实低于去年全年水平，而且去年9月德国通胀率还曾达到2.6%的三年高点。当时的解释也是由于能源价格的上涨。从欧债危机爆发以来， 德国人对通胀的担忧就日渐抬头。近两年随着德国通胀率超过2%，德国人对通胀的恐惧与日俱增，有经济学家担心德国的通胀预期已经形成。
　　一个佐证是，长期以来以稳定著称、不被机构和个人投资者看好的德国房地产市场出现投资热潮，德国的平均房价在过去一年上涨了5%，是通胀率的两 倍。在大中城市，房价同比上涨10%左右。一度住房租金为欧洲主要大城市最低之一的德国首都柏林，住房租金一年内上涨了9.3%。
　　有经济学家认为，欧债危机以来，欧洲超低的利率环境和欧洲央行释放的巨额流动性激活了长期低迷的德国房地产市场，投资者对通胀的恐惧更助长了房地产市场的投资热潮。这可能会导致德国房地产泡沫，给经济造成下行风险。
　　德国的房地产市场有无泡沫可以存疑，但德国人的通胀恐惧却是真实存在。在德国人看来，重启了购债计划的欧洲央行已经步美联储后尘成为印钱机器，美联储新一轮的量化宽松更加剧了全球通货膨胀的预期。已经有学者直截了当地表示，通胀来了，而且会长期存在。
　　德国人的这种通胀恐惧来自历史的教训。20世纪前半期，同一代德国人先后两次被通货膨胀血洗了财产。第一次是20年代著名的恶性通货膨胀，直接 导致了德国民主共和制度的终结。第二次则在二战后的最初几年，帝国马克几成废纸，美国香烟成为事实货币。这两次通胀，让许多人一生积蓄化为乌有，一夜之间 变成赤贫。这样惨痛的记忆让德国人对通货膨胀有着近乎苛刻的警惕。
　　正是这种警惕让德国央行行长魏德曼即便被孤立也坚决反对欧洲央行的购债计划，也让德国民众会因此成立“要回黄金”的民间组织，督促政府取回存于外国的黄金储备，更让许多德国人一直保留着德国马克，缅怀着怀揣坚挺德国马克的“美好时代”。(丹一)

编辑:陈睿

德國房地產: 用德國柏林房產市場火紅Berlin's Hot Housing Market

 By Dalia Fahmy on September 13, 2012   businessweek.com
 http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-09-13/berlins-hot-housing-market

On a crisp September morning outside the graffiti-covered former Berlin department store known as Tacheles, Martin Reiter watched his fellow squatters haul their art away. Artists colonized the store shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, and though they had fended off more than a dozen eviction attempts, the 40 current occupants finally lost their studios. The real estate had become too valuable. “There is no point in fighting this any longer,” says Reiter, 50, who once made motorized sculptures from stolen construction equipment. As bailiffs supervised the eviction, Reiter excoriated the private consortium of banks with claims on the property. “These zombies don’t care whether people are evicted or not,” he says. “To them, all that matters is the profit.”
Photograph by Klaus Muenzner/OstkreuzOne of the artists gave this parting shot: “You can’t make good art amidst all these boutiques”
When artists first occupied Tacheles—German for “straight talk”—in 1990, the surrounding East Berlin neighborhood was a grim assembly of barren lots and crumbling facades still scarred from World War II. Today Mitte, as the area is called, is the German capital’s most expensive quarter, lined with upscale restaurants, designer boutiques, and art galleries. “Twenty years ago, nobody knew what a hot spot that area would become,” says Hanns-Joachim Fredrich, head of Berlin real estate at Cushman & Wakefield. Slightly larger than a Manhattan block, Tacheles will likely give way to luxury apartments and high-end shops.
Photograph by Christian Jungeblodt/ReduxSince the artists’ early years, the neighborhood has come up a notch
While Berlin has few large companies and one of the highest unemployment rates in Germany—12 percent compared with the national rate of 6.8 percent—the city of 3.5 million has spent the years since the global financial meltdown transforming itself into Europe’s up-and-coming capital. Two years ago, it overtook Rome as the third-most visited destination in Europe after London and Paris. Unlike the rest of the country, Berlin has seen its population grow in the past eight years, swelling with young creative professionals and technology entrepreneurs, who start more companies in the city each year than in any other in Germany. Now real estate investors are piling in, sending prices for residential properties surging 17 percent in the past 12 months and 31 percent in the five years ended in July, according to broker ImmobilienScout 24. Berlin apartments average about €2,000 ($2,555) per square meter, less than one-third of the going rate in Paris and less than a quarter of the London price.
Rental income from a typical Berlin apartment building provides about a 5 percent annualized return, better than many other assets as the European Central Bank keeps interest rates at record lows. “We’re starting from a weak base, prices are low, and rent has a long way to go,” says Pär Hakeman, the country manager for Akelius Fastigheter, a Swedish property firm that owns about 6,500 apartments in Berlin. Private equity firms Blackstone Group (BX) and Benson Elliott Capital Management have bought thousands of Berlin apartments in the past year. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, U.S. fund managers such as MFS Investment Management and Invesco (IVZ) have bought shares in GSW Immobilien (GIB), a property company that owns 53,000 city apartments. Wealthy families from Spain, Italy, and Greece are buying multifamily buildings to protect their savings, says analyst André Adami of market research and consulting firm BulwienGesa.
Photograph by Jörg Brüggemann/Ostkreuz
Demand is particularly high for new luxury developments, Adami says. Not far from Tacheles, a Swiss developer is building a glass-and-steel pyramid with interior designs by Philippe Starck. “You have a serious danger of a housing bubble developing in Berlin,” billionaire investor George Soros said in a Berlin speech on Sept. 10. “It has a lot to do with the flight of capital and negative real interest rates.” Berlin apartments are overvalued, says Steffen Sebastian, head of the Real Estate Institute at the University of Regensburg, because unlike Paris and London the city has no concentration of banks or other industries. Those companies are scattered fairly evenly across Germany’s seven biggest cities. “All we have here is the government and the lobbyists,” Sebastian says.
Berlin’s government has traditionally been the biggest apartment owner and helped keep housing affordable. The spate of privatizations, often executed to fill budget gaps, has sparked protests. During a June property conference attended by mostly domestic investors and executives, several hundred demonstrators held up traffic in central Berlin for more than an hour, chanting in German, “Don’t make your percent off our rent.” In the past decade the city has sold €2 billion worth of public property to plug budget gaps, and local legislators are attempting to limit further sales.

Photograph by Frank Schirrmeister/Ostkreuz

To the artists at Tacheles, the property boom is one more step in what Reiter calls the “global capitalist coup.” As the artists’ supporters take turns playing mournful songs on a grand piano parked on the sidewalk, he says, “This part of the city doesn’t interest us anymore. You can’t make good art amidst all these boutiques and restaurants.”

The bottom line: With Berlin real estate prices spiking 17 percent in the past year, George Soros and others are concerned about a bubble.

Fahmy is a reporter for Bloomberg News in Berlin.

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ZIEGERT思杰德国柏林房地产拥有超过25 年的德国房地产经验，我们的德籍专业团队都扎根德国柏林, 我们爱柏林。最新柏林房源及资讯请看以下连结:

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最新德国柏林房源，请看以下连结

 最新德国柏林房源，请看以下连结:

http://www.juwai.com/DEproperty

德國房市 下個避險天堂

• 2012-08-15 01:05
• 工商時報
• 【記者林佳誼／綜合外電報導】

    　歐債危機爆發以來，大批資金瘋狂尋找避險港灣，就連殖利率跌到負值的德國公債都有投資人搶抱。但現在德國不動產市場卻以同樣安全、報酬卻預料更高的優勢，迅速躥起成為下一個避險天堂。
    　德國不動產市場具備價格穩定上揚、貸款利率低廉，以及經濟前景穩定等利多因素，在今日的歐洲市場中，是相當難得的投資標的。
    　德國仲量聯行執行長波施克（Frank Porschke）說：「每個人口中都在說避險天堂，而如果投資人自問有哪個區域、哪種投資工具是還可以投資的，就會無可避免地想到不動產。」
    　另據德國仲量聯行研究部門主管舒納曼（Helge Scheunemann）指出，目前的德國房市主要買家包含保險公司、退休基金與開放式基金等，且多半來自德國，熱衷投資漢堡、慕尼黑及法蘭克福等西德城市的成屋。
    　此外，因為德國規定購買不動產最多需要3成自備款，且一般德國人也樂於當無殼蝸牛，不認為非得購買自有住宅不可，因此德國房價目前其實還位於相對低檔，不像之前的美國房市泡沫化。
    　其實德國房價上揚只是近2、3年的事。根據德意志銀行研究資料，2000至2005年間德國名目房價曾下跌10％，且直到2009年都處於停滯狀態。
    　舒納曼指出，近年德國房市走高，除與優質物件供給不多有關外，經濟穩定與失業下降更是主要原因。
    　根據德意志銀行另一份近期報告，儘管2008至2009年全球歷經嚴重衰退，但2005年以來德國始終享有平均2％的實質經濟成長率，而德國房價不但與經濟成長的步伐相當一致，近期增幅也配合民眾的可支配收入攀升。
    　是以該行認為，短期內避險資金潮或將繼續湧入德國房市，其中又以居民在50萬人以上的大城市，房價漲速將最為明顯。

德國大城市房價暴漲致一房難求

德國大城市房價暴漲致一房難求

  2012-08-16 15:07

（德國‧柏林16日訊）歐債危機造成德國許多大城市房價暴漲。該國金融機構新近的一項調查顯示，全德有四分之一的居民無力遷居，大城市中這種情況達到39%。

斯圖加特金融機構W&W於昨日公佈上述調查結果時分析，近一年來，不論是租房還是買 房，房市供求水平極不均衡。德國居民租房人數大於買房，但許多大城市房租的漲價幅度已超出了普通人的承受力。一些新移民較多的城市漲幅更大，例如柏林和法 蘭克福兩座城市中，每平米房租已漲到了平均10歐元以上。

從前較為穩定的購房市場價格也在極度增長。慕尼黑、法蘭克福和漢堡每平米均價已達3000歐元以上，和去年的房價相比漲幅為7.3%，相對較便宜的柏林房價也在一年之間上升了10%左右。

據統計，德國人每月家庭收入中的三分之一用於住房，支付房租或者是償還購房貸款。低收入家庭的 住房支出超出了月收入的40%。對普通居民來說，房租的不斷增高為尋找合適的房源帶來困難。在找房的人群中，32%的人花費了半年、20%的人花費了一年 以上才找到合適的住房，還有24%的找房者最後乾脆放棄搬家。

上述調查還發現了一個耐人尋味的問題：德國人基本不願離開自己目前的生活環境。生活在城市中的 人群願意留在城市中，而習慣了田園風光的人也不願離開自己的村莊。只有12%的“城裡人”願意搬到鄉村，有43%的城市居民表示，在承擔不了房租的情況下 更願意搬到“城鄉結合處”。和世界各地沒有區別的是，大部份30歲以下的年輕人願意遠離家鄉到別處生活。（中新社）

http://www.sinchew-i.com/node/319500?tid=5

（星洲網）